The final battle for the ‘swing’ states

What happened

Buoyed by a substantial lead in the polls, Barack Obama this week returned to his original promise to introduce “a new kind of politics” in presenting the “closing argument” of his presidential campaign, while John McCain campaigned vigorously to close the gap. Speaking to enthusiastic crowds, including rallies of more than 100,000, Obama said that in just a few days, “you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election, that tries to pit region against region, that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.” He said voters face a choice between a new approach to the economy and the “failed” economic policies supported by both President Bush and McCain, including deregulation and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthiest Americans.

McCain continued to hammer Obama for pursuing policies that smack of “socialism.” Referring to a just-discovered 2001 interview in which Obama spoke of “redistributive change,” McCain said his rival “is running to be redistributor in chief. It means taking your money and giving it to someone else.” With Democrats poised to pick up seats in both the Senate and the House, McCain also said a vote for him would avert the extremes of an undivided, Democratic government. “My opponent is working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid of their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq,” he said.

National polls showed Obama with leads ranging from two to 12 points, and six points in the Realclearpolitics.com average. More important, Obama had comfortable leads in all the “blue” states won by John Kerry in 2004, and was also leading in such delegate-rich “red” states as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. To reach the necessary 270 electoral votes, McCain will have to overcome Obama’s poll leads in every one of those red states, or take some combination of red states and Pennsylvania, where he was trailing by an average of 11 points. “Nothing is inevitable,” said McCain. “You’re going to be up very, very late on election night.”

What the editorials said

This should be an easy decision for Alaskans, said the Anchorage Daily News. For the first time in history, one of our own, Gov. Sarah Palin, is on a major party ticket. But while Palin has been a respectable governor, “putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.” She’s clearly not prepared to “juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars, and a deteriorating climate crisis.” Obama, on the other hand, has shown keen intelligence and prescient judgment, and will “return to the smart, bipartisan economic policies” of Bill Clinton’s administration.

Obama is certainly “the most inspirational campaigner in memory,” said The Tampa Tribune, but his “short tenure in the Senate has been unremarkable” and “consistently partisan.” His discredited liberal ideas would push America “toward a European-style social democracy,” and expose it to unprecedented dangers abroad. We can’t afford to gamble on “seductive promises.” McCain may not be the candidate “preferred in Europe and much of the Middle East,” but he has “a lifetime of useful experience,” proven toughness, and the knowledge that “economic growth comes from hard work and real investment,” not taxing the so-called rich.

What the columnists said

McCain’s itinerary this week, with trips to Florida and Ohio, shows how badly the odds are stacked against him, said E.J. Dionne in The Washington Post. Pleading for votes in states that were supposed to be safe “is a sign of the extent to which Obama has out-organized and out-strategized McCain.” To make matters worse, said David Frum, also in the Post, “McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.” His campaign has swung so far toward the angry Right that moderate Republicans could be thrown out of Congress by swing voters disgusted by how the GOP has “Palinized itself.”

Actually, McCain is doing better than anyone has a right to expect, said Byron York in National Review. His charismatic opponent has an enormous financial advantage, and McCain is running to succeed an unpopular president from his own party. Nonetheless, he was leading in this race until the financial crisis distracted Americans from his foreign policy expertise. It’s a sign of McCain’s drive and character that he still believes he can win. After all, “this is a man who has dodged death—real death, not political death—many times.”

McCain’s greatest obstacle is John McCain, said Paul Krugman in The New York Times. He claims to be a “maverick,” but that appears to be a personality trait denoting anger and impulsiveness, rather than some objection “to the way the country has been run the past eight years.” With no coherent ideas how to fix the broken economy, he’s based his campaign on “trivia,” shouting about ’60s radicals and socialism even after the financial crisis deepened. Obama started the year with vague platitudes, but when the banks crashed, he rose to the occasion by keeping his cool, calmly seeking the opinions and ideas of experts, and becoming knowledgeable quickly. “Americans have rediscovered the virtue of seriousness.” That’s why Obama will win.

What next?

Anticipating balloting challenges, technology problems, and possible chaos on Election Day, both campaigns are sending tens of thousands of lawyers to the battleground states to monitor polling places, assist voters, and rush to court with legal challenges if necessary. Democrats are sending 5,000 volunteer attorneys to Florida alone. “On Election Day I will be managing the largest law firm in the country,” said Charles Lichtman, who is in charge of the Democratic operation there. Sean Cairncross, who heads the Republican National Committee’s legal effort, said he would have enough lawyers “to respond to any contingency.”