Take heart, John McCain, said Bill Greener in Salon.com. Whatever the polls may say, this is still America, where miracles can happen—especially when your opponent is the first African-American to run for president. Polls are showing Barack Obama ahead in key battleground states, but in most of them, the Democrat is still not getting more than 50 percent of the vote. “If history is any guide,” Obama’s lead could well evaporate on Nov. 4. It won’t be because of the so-called Bradley effect, whereby voters tell pollsters they’re voting for a black candidate but let their racial animus surface in the privacy of the voting booth. Instead, we may find that virtually all the “undecided” voters actually had made up their minds to vote for McCain, giving him 5 percent to 8 percent more than polls show—and the presidency.
If the undecideds put McCain over the top, said Aaron Mishkin in The Weekly Standard, it won’t necessarily be because they’re racists. It’s the fear of being thought a racist that makes them reluctant to admit they don’t like Obama for perfectly valid reasons of policy and experience. The media keeps telling them that Obama is the future, and that anyone who doesn’t support him is either a bigot or a moron. So when these “undecideds” choose to disagree, political scientists may have a new phrase in their lexicon: “the Obama effect.”
If you analyze recent election results, said Andrew Romano in Newsweek.com, that theory “really doesn’t hold water.” In some elections, yes, undecided voters have broken disproportionately for a white candidate over a black candidate, but the reverse has also happened. More relevant, surely, is Obama’s record in the primaries, in which he went up against the white Hillary Clinton in election after election and actually “outperformed the polls by an average of 3.3 points over the course of the entire primary season.” Typical polling models simply don’t account for the unprecedented enthusiasm for Obama’s historic candidacy among black voters and people under 30. This country has come a long way over the past decade, said USA Today in an editorial. Some analysts are even speculating that Obama will benefit from a so-called reverse Bradley effect, by which some working-class whites who are furious at the GOP vote for Obama “while telling bigoted friends” and pollsters they’re for McCain.
Still, it would be naïve to write off the potential impact of racism in this election, said Michael Powell in The New York Times. White, working-class voters interviewed in small towns in Pennsylvania—a critical battleground state—frankly admitted they were alarmed by Obama. “Close friends, real close, tell me they can’t get past his race,” said union plumber Vince Pisano, 47, an Obama supporter. But there are also plenty of voters like Peggy Doffin, 79, who supported Hillary Clinton during the primary and didn’t much care for Obama. Then she listened to his convention speech. “Chills ran down my back,” Doffin says. The country’s economic meltdown finalized her decision, convincing her that the country needs a dramatic change in leadership. “Race just don’t matter to me anymore,” she says. Nor does it matter to enough voters to “flip this election,’’ said Frank Rich, also in the Times. With the nation’s economy and foreign policy in shambles, Republicans have nothing left to offer but coded appeals to “real Americans’’ that take the working class for easily manipulated dupes. “This seems to be the election year when voters are figuring that out.’’
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John McCain. Show all posts
Friday, November 7, 2008
The final battle for the ‘swing’ states
What happened
Buoyed by a substantial lead in the polls, Barack Obama this week returned to his original promise to introduce “a new kind of politics” in presenting the “closing argument” of his presidential campaign, while John McCain campaigned vigorously to close the gap. Speaking to enthusiastic crowds, including rallies of more than 100,000, Obama said that in just a few days, “you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election, that tries to pit region against region, that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.” He said voters face a choice between a new approach to the economy and the “failed” economic policies supported by both President Bush and McCain, including deregulation and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthiest Americans.
McCain continued to hammer Obama for pursuing policies that smack of “socialism.” Referring to a just-discovered 2001 interview in which Obama spoke of “redistributive change,” McCain said his rival “is running to be redistributor in chief. It means taking your money and giving it to someone else.” With Democrats poised to pick up seats in both the Senate and the House, McCain also said a vote for him would avert the extremes of an undivided, Democratic government. “My opponent is working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid of their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq,” he said.
National polls showed Obama with leads ranging from two to 12 points, and six points in the Realclearpolitics.com average. More important, Obama had comfortable leads in all the “blue” states won by John Kerry in 2004, and was also leading in such delegate-rich “red” states as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. To reach the necessary 270 electoral votes, McCain will have to overcome Obama’s poll leads in every one of those red states, or take some combination of red states and Pennsylvania, where he was trailing by an average of 11 points. “Nothing is inevitable,” said McCain. “You’re going to be up very, very late on election night.”
What the editorials said
This should be an easy decision for Alaskans, said the Anchorage Daily News. For the first time in history, one of our own, Gov. Sarah Palin, is on a major party ticket. But while Palin has been a respectable governor, “putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.” She’s clearly not prepared to “juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars, and a deteriorating climate crisis.” Obama, on the other hand, has shown keen intelligence and prescient judgment, and will “return to the smart, bipartisan economic policies” of Bill Clinton’s administration.
Obama is certainly “the most inspirational campaigner in memory,” said The Tampa Tribune, but his “short tenure in the Senate has been unremarkable” and “consistently partisan.” His discredited liberal ideas would push America “toward a European-style social democracy,” and expose it to unprecedented dangers abroad. We can’t afford to gamble on “seductive promises.” McCain may not be the candidate “preferred in Europe and much of the Middle East,” but he has “a lifetime of useful experience,” proven toughness, and the knowledge that “economic growth comes from hard work and real investment,” not taxing the so-called rich.
What the columnists said
McCain’s itinerary this week, with trips to Florida and Ohio, shows how badly the odds are stacked against him, said E.J. Dionne in The Washington Post. Pleading for votes in states that were supposed to be safe “is a sign of the extent to which Obama has out-organized and out-strategized McCain.” To make matters worse, said David Frum, also in the Post, “McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.” His campaign has swung so far toward the angry Right that moderate Republicans could be thrown out of Congress by swing voters disgusted by how the GOP has “Palinized itself.”
Actually, McCain is doing better than anyone has a right to expect, said Byron York in National Review. His charismatic opponent has an enormous financial advantage, and McCain is running to succeed an unpopular president from his own party. Nonetheless, he was leading in this race until the financial crisis distracted Americans from his foreign policy expertise. It’s a sign of McCain’s drive and character that he still believes he can win. After all, “this is a man who has dodged death—real death, not political death—many times.”
McCain’s greatest obstacle is John McCain, said Paul Krugman in The New York Times. He claims to be a “maverick,” but that appears to be a personality trait denoting anger and impulsiveness, rather than some objection “to the way the country has been run the past eight years.” With no coherent ideas how to fix the broken economy, he’s based his campaign on “trivia,” shouting about ’60s radicals and socialism even after the financial crisis deepened. Obama started the year with vague platitudes, but when the banks crashed, he rose to the occasion by keeping his cool, calmly seeking the opinions and ideas of experts, and becoming knowledgeable quickly. “Americans have rediscovered the virtue of seriousness.” That’s why Obama will win.
What next?
Anticipating balloting challenges, technology problems, and possible chaos on Election Day, both campaigns are sending tens of thousands of lawyers to the battleground states to monitor polling places, assist voters, and rush to court with legal challenges if necessary. Democrats are sending 5,000 volunteer attorneys to Florida alone. “On Election Day I will be managing the largest law firm in the country,” said Charles Lichtman, who is in charge of the Democratic operation there. Sean Cairncross, who heads the Republican National Committee’s legal effort, said he would have enough lawyers “to respond to any contingency.”
Buoyed by a substantial lead in the polls, Barack Obama this week returned to his original promise to introduce “a new kind of politics” in presenting the “closing argument” of his presidential campaign, while John McCain campaigned vigorously to close the gap. Speaking to enthusiastic crowds, including rallies of more than 100,000, Obama said that in just a few days, “you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election, that tries to pit region against region, that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.” He said voters face a choice between a new approach to the economy and the “failed” economic policies supported by both President Bush and McCain, including deregulation and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthiest Americans.
McCain continued to hammer Obama for pursuing policies that smack of “socialism.” Referring to a just-discovered 2001 interview in which Obama spoke of “redistributive change,” McCain said his rival “is running to be redistributor in chief. It means taking your money and giving it to someone else.” With Democrats poised to pick up seats in both the Senate and the House, McCain also said a vote for him would avert the extremes of an undivided, Democratic government. “My opponent is working out the details with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid of their plans to raise your taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq,” he said.
National polls showed Obama with leads ranging from two to 12 points, and six points in the Realclearpolitics.com average. More important, Obama had comfortable leads in all the “blue” states won by John Kerry in 2004, and was also leading in such delegate-rich “red” states as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. To reach the necessary 270 electoral votes, McCain will have to overcome Obama’s poll leads in every one of those red states, or take some combination of red states and Pennsylvania, where he was trailing by an average of 11 points. “Nothing is inevitable,” said McCain. “You’re going to be up very, very late on election night.”
What the editorials said
This should be an easy decision for Alaskans, said the Anchorage Daily News. For the first time in history, one of our own, Gov. Sarah Palin, is on a major party ticket. But while Palin has been a respectable governor, “putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.” She’s clearly not prepared to “juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars, and a deteriorating climate crisis.” Obama, on the other hand, has shown keen intelligence and prescient judgment, and will “return to the smart, bipartisan economic policies” of Bill Clinton’s administration.
Obama is certainly “the most inspirational campaigner in memory,” said The Tampa Tribune, but his “short tenure in the Senate has been unremarkable” and “consistently partisan.” His discredited liberal ideas would push America “toward a European-style social democracy,” and expose it to unprecedented dangers abroad. We can’t afford to gamble on “seductive promises.” McCain may not be the candidate “preferred in Europe and much of the Middle East,” but he has “a lifetime of useful experience,” proven toughness, and the knowledge that “economic growth comes from hard work and real investment,” not taxing the so-called rich.
What the columnists said
McCain’s itinerary this week, with trips to Florida and Ohio, shows how badly the odds are stacked against him, said E.J. Dionne in The Washington Post. Pleading for votes in states that were supposed to be safe “is a sign of the extent to which Obama has out-organized and out-strategized McCain.” To make matters worse, said David Frum, also in the Post, “McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.” His campaign has swung so far toward the angry Right that moderate Republicans could be thrown out of Congress by swing voters disgusted by how the GOP has “Palinized itself.”
Actually, McCain is doing better than anyone has a right to expect, said Byron York in National Review. His charismatic opponent has an enormous financial advantage, and McCain is running to succeed an unpopular president from his own party. Nonetheless, he was leading in this race until the financial crisis distracted Americans from his foreign policy expertise. It’s a sign of McCain’s drive and character that he still believes he can win. After all, “this is a man who has dodged death—real death, not political death—many times.”
McCain’s greatest obstacle is John McCain, said Paul Krugman in The New York Times. He claims to be a “maverick,” but that appears to be a personality trait denoting anger and impulsiveness, rather than some objection “to the way the country has been run the past eight years.” With no coherent ideas how to fix the broken economy, he’s based his campaign on “trivia,” shouting about ’60s radicals and socialism even after the financial crisis deepened. Obama started the year with vague platitudes, but when the banks crashed, he rose to the occasion by keeping his cool, calmly seeking the opinions and ideas of experts, and becoming knowledgeable quickly. “Americans have rediscovered the virtue of seriousness.” That’s why Obama will win.
What next?
Anticipating balloting challenges, technology problems, and possible chaos on Election Day, both campaigns are sending tens of thousands of lawyers to the battleground states to monitor polling places, assist voters, and rush to court with legal challenges if necessary. Democrats are sending 5,000 volunteer attorneys to Florida alone. “On Election Day I will be managing the largest law firm in the country,” said Charles Lichtman, who is in charge of the Democratic operation there. Sean Cairncross, who heads the Republican National Committee’s legal effort, said he would have enough lawyers “to respond to any contingency.”
Palin: A public rift with McCain
Has Sarah Palin gone off the reservation? asked Ben Smith in Politico.com. In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, the Republican vice presidential nominee is visibly putting distance between herself and John McCain’s campaign organization, voicing public disagreement with the decisions to give up on Michigan and not make use of Barack Obama’s connection to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. To the horror of campaign “minders,” the Alaska governor walked over to reporters on a tarmac one day last week and answered impromptu questions, as if simply to prove she could do it. Palin has also let it be known that she’s blaming McCain’s aides for undermining her “just folks” image by buying her a $150,000 wardrobe. Incredibly, McCain aides are firing back, telling reporters that Palin is “going rogue,” and accusing her of letting her popularity with the party’s base go to her head. “She is playing for her own future,” one McCain advisor told CNN. “She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone.”
There’s only one explanation for this rift, said Andrew Romano in Newsweek.com. Palin is “making plans for 2012.” She’s clearly more interested in her own image than in helping McCain win. By moving to his right, and publicly taking hard-line conservative positions on such issues as Rev. Wright, gay marriage, and abortion, she seems to be telling conservatives, “Don’t blame me if this guy loses.” If, however, McCain does lose, Palin would immediately emerge as a favorite for the 2012 nomination. That’s how it may look today, said Michael Medved in Townhall.com, but vice presidential nominees on losing tickets end up being seen as … well, losers. John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, and Dan Quayle all mounted presidential bids after their respective losses—and all “failed miserably.” If McCain does lose, “many Republicans will blame Palin,” and it’s hard to imagine the fractured party rallying around her as some kind of savior.
Win, lose, or draw, Sarah Palin isn’t going away, said Gerald F. Seib in The Wall Street Journal. Independents and Democrats may view her as unprepared and unqualified, but among the GOP base, she’s already wildly popular: Three-quarters of Republicans have a positive opinion of her. Politicians usually have to work for decades to attain the name recognition and “star power” that Palin has achieved in just seven weeks. Hers is “one of the more amazing political stories of our times,” and whatever happens on Nov. 4, that story isn’t over.
There’s only one explanation for this rift, said Andrew Romano in Newsweek.com. Palin is “making plans for 2012.” She’s clearly more interested in her own image than in helping McCain win. By moving to his right, and publicly taking hard-line conservative positions on such issues as Rev. Wright, gay marriage, and abortion, she seems to be telling conservatives, “Don’t blame me if this guy loses.” If, however, McCain does lose, Palin would immediately emerge as a favorite for the 2012 nomination. That’s how it may look today, said Michael Medved in Townhall.com, but vice presidential nominees on losing tickets end up being seen as … well, losers. John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, and Dan Quayle all mounted presidential bids after their respective losses—and all “failed miserably.” If McCain does lose, “many Republicans will blame Palin,” and it’s hard to imagine the fractured party rallying around her as some kind of savior.
Win, lose, or draw, Sarah Palin isn’t going away, said Gerald F. Seib in The Wall Street Journal. Independents and Democrats may view her as unprepared and unqualified, but among the GOP base, she’s already wildly popular: Three-quarters of Republicans have a positive opinion of her. Politicians usually have to work for decades to attain the name recognition and “star power” that Palin has achieved in just seven weeks. Hers is “one of the more amazing political stories of our times,” and whatever happens on Nov. 4, that story isn’t over.
Friday, October 31, 2008
How they see us: Racism and the presidential campaign
Will American racism cost Barack Obama the election? asked Alexander Downer, former foreign minister of Australia, in Australia’s Advertiser. Polls consistently put the Democrat several points ahead of his Republican rival, John McCain—but the very slimness of his lead is shocking. Both parties share the blame for the global financial crisis, but given that it “happened on the Republicans’ watch,” the Democratic candidate “should win in a landslide.” The fact that McCain still has a chance can be explained by only one factor: race. The truth is, race remains a hugely divisive factor in American politics. We outsiders may not realize it—since we’re used to seeing Colin Powell or Condoleezza Rice as the face of America—but polls show that many white Americans view blacks with suspicion, even distrust. “Sen. Obama is doing less well than you would expect not because of his policies, or because of the failure of his character, but because of the color of his skin. That’s very sad.”
But it’s not surprising, said Achille Mbembe in South Africa’s Cape Times. The Republican Party has been practicing “win-at-any-cost” politics for decades. Fighting a close battle with a black candidate, it naturally chose to “descend into the dark territories of race-baiting and xenophobia.” But the tactic may be spinning out of control. McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, has been encouraging crowds to see Obama as somehow un-American, possibly even as a terrorist. “Rousing the uglier impulses of America is a symptom of an ideology in an advanced state of decay.”
I have met four Republicans in my life, said Jacob Dlamini in South Africa’s Business Day, and all have been “the very definition of narrow-mindedness and mean-spiritedness.” One of them openly admitted he was a racist, another had a “visceral hatred of gay people,” and the other two believed that the solution to the Middle East’s problems was to “nuke the Arabs.” I know that four people, out of millions, don’t add up to a significant sample. Perhaps there are “many decent Republicans” out there. But I wonder “how many of them feel at home” in the party today.
Let’s hope it’s not many, said Kap Kirwok in Kenya’s East African Standard. True, some of the anti-Obama bumper stickers are downright “scary.” A typical one reads, “Warning: I am a bitter Christian and I am clinging to my gun.” That’s ostensibly a reference to a comment Obama made about people in small towns, but it carries threatening overtones. Still, we should not be disheartened. Obama has a huge and devoted network of supporters, most of them white, and they are working tirelessly to get him elected. He is like “a duck on a lake: On the face of it, it looks all calm and serene, effortlessly gliding along, but below the water surface, its legs are paddling madly.” All we can say is, “Go, Obama, go!”
But it’s not surprising, said Achille Mbembe in South Africa’s Cape Times. The Republican Party has been practicing “win-at-any-cost” politics for decades. Fighting a close battle with a black candidate, it naturally chose to “descend into the dark territories of race-baiting and xenophobia.” But the tactic may be spinning out of control. McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, has been encouraging crowds to see Obama as somehow un-American, possibly even as a terrorist. “Rousing the uglier impulses of America is a symptom of an ideology in an advanced state of decay.”
I have met four Republicans in my life, said Jacob Dlamini in South Africa’s Business Day, and all have been “the very definition of narrow-mindedness and mean-spiritedness.” One of them openly admitted he was a racist, another had a “visceral hatred of gay people,” and the other two believed that the solution to the Middle East’s problems was to “nuke the Arabs.” I know that four people, out of millions, don’t add up to a significant sample. Perhaps there are “many decent Republicans” out there. But I wonder “how many of them feel at home” in the party today.
Let’s hope it’s not many, said Kap Kirwok in Kenya’s East African Standard. True, some of the anti-Obama bumper stickers are downright “scary.” A typical one reads, “Warning: I am a bitter Christian and I am clinging to my gun.” That’s ostensibly a reference to a comment Obama made about people in small towns, but it carries threatening overtones. Still, we should not be disheartened. Obama has a huge and devoted network of supporters, most of them white, and they are working tirelessly to get him elected. He is like “a duck on a lake: On the face of it, it looks all calm and serene, effortlessly gliding along, but below the water surface, its legs are paddling madly.” All we can say is, “Go, Obama, go!”
Obama with a commanding lead
Barack Obama headed toward the finish line of his two-year-long campaign for the presidency with a growing lead over John McCain in national polls and a commanding advantage in funds. Obama’s lead this week averaged more than seven points, with some polls reporting a double-digit spread. Support for McCain running mate Sarah Palin continued to erode, with 55 percent of respondents to the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll calling her unqualified. Obama raised a staggering $153 million in September. Flush with cash, Obama flooded swing states with campaign workers and TV ads, and took the fight to McCain in “red” states, including North Carolina and Virginia, where polls showed Obama leading.
Obama was further buoyed by the endorsement of former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who called Obama “a transformational figure,” and said he was very troubled by McCain’s selection of Palin and by his campaign’s insinuation that Obama was connected to terrorists. Portraying himself as an underdog, McCain sought to rally working-class voters to his side by portraying Obama as an untested and untrustworthy “socialist” who “believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs and opportunities for all Americans.’’
What the editorials said
“We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago,” said the Chicago Tribune. “We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass, and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions.” This is the first time in the Tribune’s 161 years that we have endorsed a Democrat for president. But Obama is “ready,” and at this perilous moment in history, we need a man who seeks “consensus,” not partisan “savagery.”
As a POW and a veteran member of Congress, John McCain “has demonstrated the grit, energy, and determination that the present challenges demand,” said The Columbus Dispatch. With Congress becoming even more heavily Democratic, we need a president who is committed to cutting the swollen federal budget and reducing the runaway national debt. Having sacrificed so deeply himself, McCain has “unmatched moral authority” to “call on Americans to make sacrifices.’’
What the columnists said
Imagine a Republican who broke a promise to take public financing and “instead dealt the post-Watergate campaign financing system a blow from which it will never recover,” said Rich Lowry in National Review Online. Then the Republican raises $600 million and “out-advertises his opponent” by 4–1. Everyone would call it “obscene.” Yet when Obama does it, “everyone stands back in admiration.”
Republicans are experiencing “a disoriented fit of pique,” said Thomas F. Schaller in the Baltimore Sun. In its “disgusting robo-calls and television ads,” the McCain campaign is insisting that Obama is a dangerous man with terrorist friends and a mysterious past. On the stump, Palin is differentiating between “real America”—where people are patriotic and hardworking—and everywhere else. Guess what millions of “real” Americans are doing while all this sleaze pours forth? “Writing checks to Obama.”
A McCain comeback is not impossible, said Steve Kornacki in The New York Observer, but the electoral map makes it extremely unlikely. Polls show him trailing by nearly 10 points in Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, all of which President Bush won in 2004. To win, McCain has to take at least three of these states, and keep Obama from winning a single “red” state where the Democrat is now running either ahead or slightly behind, including Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri. Barring a major game-changer, McCain’s chances are dim.
What next?
First-time voters support Obama by a whopping 73–26 percent. Yet they are notoriously unreliable and, without them, Obama’s lead shrivels to a mere three points, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll. But Obama hopes to buttress youthful enthusiasm by maintaining a constant presence on television while fielding an enormous get-out-the-vote operation. “McCain,” said Evan Tracey, who monitors campaign spending on television ads, “is in a shouting match with a man with a megaphone.”
Obama was further buoyed by the endorsement of former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who called Obama “a transformational figure,” and said he was very troubled by McCain’s selection of Palin and by his campaign’s insinuation that Obama was connected to terrorists. Portraying himself as an underdog, McCain sought to rally working-class voters to his side by portraying Obama as an untested and untrustworthy “socialist” who “believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs and opportunities for all Americans.’’
What the editorials said
“We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago,” said the Chicago Tribune. “We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass, and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions.” This is the first time in the Tribune’s 161 years that we have endorsed a Democrat for president. But Obama is “ready,” and at this perilous moment in history, we need a man who seeks “consensus,” not partisan “savagery.”
As a POW and a veteran member of Congress, John McCain “has demonstrated the grit, energy, and determination that the present challenges demand,” said The Columbus Dispatch. With Congress becoming even more heavily Democratic, we need a president who is committed to cutting the swollen federal budget and reducing the runaway national debt. Having sacrificed so deeply himself, McCain has “unmatched moral authority” to “call on Americans to make sacrifices.’’
What the columnists said
Imagine a Republican who broke a promise to take public financing and “instead dealt the post-Watergate campaign financing system a blow from which it will never recover,” said Rich Lowry in National Review Online. Then the Republican raises $600 million and “out-advertises his opponent” by 4–1. Everyone would call it “obscene.” Yet when Obama does it, “everyone stands back in admiration.”
Republicans are experiencing “a disoriented fit of pique,” said Thomas F. Schaller in the Baltimore Sun. In its “disgusting robo-calls and television ads,” the McCain campaign is insisting that Obama is a dangerous man with terrorist friends and a mysterious past. On the stump, Palin is differentiating between “real America”—where people are patriotic and hardworking—and everywhere else. Guess what millions of “real” Americans are doing while all this sleaze pours forth? “Writing checks to Obama.”
A McCain comeback is not impossible, said Steve Kornacki in The New York Observer, but the electoral map makes it extremely unlikely. Polls show him trailing by nearly 10 points in Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, all of which President Bush won in 2004. To win, McCain has to take at least three of these states, and keep Obama from winning a single “red” state where the Democrat is now running either ahead or slightly behind, including Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri. Barring a major game-changer, McCain’s chances are dim.
What next?
First-time voters support Obama by a whopping 73–26 percent. Yet they are notoriously unreliable and, without them, Obama’s lead shrivels to a mere three points, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll. But Obama hopes to buttress youthful enthusiasm by maintaining a constant presence on television while fielding an enormous get-out-the-vote operation. “McCain,” said Evan Tracey, who monitors campaign spending on television ads, “is in a shouting match with a man with a megaphone.”
Friday, July 18, 2008
McCain: Why his campaign is in trouble
John McCain is getting frustrated, said William Kristol in The New York Times. The GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, sources tell me, knows he’s losing ground to Democrat Barack Obama, and that Obama is generating most of the presidential race’s energy, momentum, and headlines. Some polls now show Obama opening a lead of more than 15 points. For McCain, this is immensely “galling”: Obama’s campaign is managing to make the inexperienced, one-term senator seem “more presidential” every day, while his own campaign has made a war hero and accomplished political warrior “seem somehow smaller.” The problem is simple, said Liz Sidoti in the Associated Press. Three months after he won the Republican primaries, McCain still has no coherent message. “He can’t seem to stick with a particular line of argument in favor of his candidacy for more than a couple of days.” Last week, he reshuffled his top staff for the second time in a year, bringing on a new campaign manager. There are still four months left before the election—plenty of time to change the dynamics of the race. Still, when McCain “calls himself an underdog, that may be an understatement.”
Republicans are getting worried, too, said Maeve Reston in the Los Angeles Times. They don’t understand why McCain hasn’t seized the political center he used to own. Instead, McCain seems torn between trying to appeal to independents and trying to convince conservatives that he’s one of them. In one recent stretch, he asked disgruntled Hillaryites to vote for him, then touted his anti-abortion views. He delighted conservatives by calling for offshore oil drilling and appalled them by professing deep concern about global warming. “There’s a lot of unease,” said one Republican strategist. “People generally like him. But when it comes down to getting excited about the candidate, it just isn’t there.”
“Republicans shouldn’t panic,” said John Fund in The Wall Street Journal Online. On most core issues, the country still leans right. History shows that as presidential elections draw nearer and voters really examine the issues, Democratic leads tend to melt away while Republicans surge. Michael Dukakis, let us not forget, once led George H.W. Bush by 17 points. The excitement over Obama’s “glitzy ‘hope and change’ rallies” will eventually fade, said Victor David Hanson in National Review Online. McCain will then have an opening to prove himself the steadier and wiser hand. Remember the Republican primaries? Much as the storied tortoise beat the hare, “the dead-last, written-off McCain eventually walked past all his front-running rivals.” It just may happen again.
Don’t bet on it, said Stuart Rothenberg in RealClearPolitics.com. After the Bush presidency, Americans have soured on Republican leadership. Polls show that voters see Democrats as more likely to bring improvements on nearly every issue, from the economy to Iraq to fiscal responsibility. McCain’s only hope, said Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal Online, is that voters like and respect him, even if they’re down on the GOP. So his handlers should “let McCain be McCain,” His biggest mistake was to put on a straitjacket when he won the primaries—to become more cautious and formal. Mr. Maverick’s appeal has always been his biting, irreverent wit and his “unblinkered candor”—his willingness to say what other politicians won’t. If McCain rediscovers his “inner rebel,” he’s got a real chance. Just watch: Up until October, Obama will maintain a big lead in the polls. Then suddenly, “America will say, Hey, wait a second, are we sure we want that? And the race will tighten indeed.”
Republicans are getting worried, too, said Maeve Reston in the Los Angeles Times. They don’t understand why McCain hasn’t seized the political center he used to own. Instead, McCain seems torn between trying to appeal to independents and trying to convince conservatives that he’s one of them. In one recent stretch, he asked disgruntled Hillaryites to vote for him, then touted his anti-abortion views. He delighted conservatives by calling for offshore oil drilling and appalled them by professing deep concern about global warming. “There’s a lot of unease,” said one Republican strategist. “People generally like him. But when it comes down to getting excited about the candidate, it just isn’t there.”
“Republicans shouldn’t panic,” said John Fund in The Wall Street Journal Online. On most core issues, the country still leans right. History shows that as presidential elections draw nearer and voters really examine the issues, Democratic leads tend to melt away while Republicans surge. Michael Dukakis, let us not forget, once led George H.W. Bush by 17 points. The excitement over Obama’s “glitzy ‘hope and change’ rallies” will eventually fade, said Victor David Hanson in National Review Online. McCain will then have an opening to prove himself the steadier and wiser hand. Remember the Republican primaries? Much as the storied tortoise beat the hare, “the dead-last, written-off McCain eventually walked past all his front-running rivals.” It just may happen again.
Don’t bet on it, said Stuart Rothenberg in RealClearPolitics.com. After the Bush presidency, Americans have soured on Republican leadership. Polls show that voters see Democrats as more likely to bring improvements on nearly every issue, from the economy to Iraq to fiscal responsibility. McCain’s only hope, said Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal Online, is that voters like and respect him, even if they’re down on the GOP. So his handlers should “let McCain be McCain,” His biggest mistake was to put on a straitjacket when he won the primaries—to become more cautious and formal. Mr. Maverick’s appeal has always been his biting, irreverent wit and his “unblinkered candor”—his willingness to say what other politicians won’t. If McCain rediscovers his “inner rebel,” he’s got a real chance. Just watch: Up until October, Obama will maintain a big lead in the polls. Then suddenly, “America will say, Hey, wait a second, are we sure we want that? And the race will tighten indeed.”
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