McCain: Why his campaign is in trouble

John McCain is getting frustrated, said William Kristol in The New York Times. The GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, sources tell me, knows he’s losing ground to Democrat Barack Obama, and that Obama is generating most of the presidential race’s energy, momentum, and headlines. Some polls now show Obama opening a lead of more than 15 points. For McCain, this is immensely “galling”: Obama’s campaign is managing to make the inexperienced, one-term senator seem “more presidential” every day, while his own campaign has made a war hero and accomplished political warrior “seem somehow smaller.” The problem is simple, said Liz Sidoti in the Associated Press. Three months after he won the Republican primaries, McCain still has no coherent message. “He can’t seem to stick with a particular line of argument in favor of his candidacy for more than a couple of days.” Last week, he reshuffled his top staff for the second time in a year, bringing on a new campaign manager. There are still four months left before the election—plenty of time to change the dynamics of the race. Still, when McCain “calls himself an underdog, that may be an understatement.”

Republicans are getting worried, too, said Maeve Reston in the Los Angeles Times. They don’t understand why McCain hasn’t seized the political center he used to own. Instead, McCain seems torn between trying to appeal to independents and trying to convince conservatives that he’s one of them. In one recent stretch, he asked disgruntled Hillaryites to vote for him, then touted his anti-abortion views. He delighted conservatives by calling for offshore oil drilling and appalled them by professing deep concern about global warming. “There’s a lot of unease,” said one Republican strategist. “People generally like him. But when it comes down to getting excited about the candidate, it just isn’t there.”

“Republicans shouldn’t panic,” said John Fund in The Wall Street Journal Online. On most core issues, the country still leans right. History shows that as presidential elections draw nearer and voters really examine the issues, Democratic leads tend to melt away while Republicans surge. Michael Dukakis, let us not forget, once led George H.W. Bush by 17 points. The excitement over Obama’s “glitzy ‘hope and change’ rallies” will eventually fade, said Victor David Hanson in National Review Online. McCain will then have an opening to prove himself the steadier and wiser hand. Remember the Republican primaries? Much as the storied tortoise beat the hare, “the dead-last, written-off McCain eventually walked past all his front-running rivals.” It just may happen again.

Don’t bet on it, said Stuart Rothenberg in RealClearPolitics.com. After the Bush presidency, Americans have soured on Republican leadership. Polls show that voters see Democrats as more likely to bring improvements on nearly every issue, from the economy to Iraq to fiscal responsibility. McCain’s only hope, said Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal Online, is that voters like and respect him, even if they’re down on the GOP. So his handlers should “let McCain be McCain,” His biggest mistake was to put on a straitjacket when he won the primaries—to become more cautious and formal. Mr. Maverick’s appeal has always been his biting, irreverent wit and his “unblinkered candor”—his willingness to say what other politicians won’t. If McCain rediscovers his “inner rebel,” he’s got a real chance. Just watch: Up until October, Obama will maintain a big lead in the polls. Then suddenly, “America will say, Hey, wait a second, are we sure we want that? And the race will tighten indeed.”